New York, New York
— March 6, 2026

Jobs Down, Unemployment Up: Why This Report Matters

Stocks are down, jobs are down, and unemployment is quietly moving higher.

The latest U.S. jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The US has now lost jobs in three of the last six months.

At a high level, this matters for one reason: consumer spending is the engine of the U.S. economy, and a weakening labor market can be the first domino.

The headline number was weak, and revisions didn’t help

This was not just a soft month. The revisions were also a reminder that the labor market has been weaker than it initially appeared.

In the February release, the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted the decline followed an increase in January, and it called out that health care employment fell in part due to strike activity.

That “caveat” is worth thinking about. Strikes can distort a single month, but they also happen for a reason. Wage pressure and cost-of-living strain are still part of the story.

Unemployment is still “low,” but it’s trending

Unemployment is not getting the attention it would have gotten in prior cycles because 4.4% still sounds reasonable on paper. But direction matters. A slow grind higher tends to show up before the broader conversation shifts.

And anecdotally, a lot of people are feeling it already, especially in tech and finance. The labor market can look “fine” in aggregate while certain white-collar segments go through a real reset.

Is it AI, the economy, or both?

The honest answer is probably both.

• The economy is slowing in places.
• AI is also changing how companies think about headcount, productivity, and where they spend dollars.

When those forces overlap, the market starts to worry about a scenario where job losses accelerate faster than workers can adapt. That is when consumer spending gets hit, and that is when risk assets start to behave differently.

What this means for the Fed

The next major checkpoint is the March 17–18 FOMC meeting. A weaker jobs print increases the pressure toward easing, but inflation still matters and with the war in Iran pushing up prices (oil), its going to be a tough call for the Fed over the next few quarters.

Bottom line

This report is a clear signal that macro is back in the picture.

We’re still bullish on the long-term AI trend, but the rollout needs to be managed. If labor dislocation moves too fast, unemployment rises, consumer spending slows, and nobody wins.

More updates coming. Be good.