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— February 27, 2026

Nvidia Q4 Debrief Part 2: Great Quarter, Market Shrugs

Nvidia stock fell after earnings for the third straight quarter. By most measures this was a stellar report but the stock remains range bound.

The core issue is not whether Nvidia is executing. It is whether investors believe the current growth rate is durable enough to justify the pace of commitments across the supply chain and the broader AI buildout.

The Burry pushback: “Nvidia ratchets up the risk”

One of the most discussed reactions came from Michael Burry, who argued that Nvidia is increasing its risk profile in a way that echoes Cisco during the dot-com era. His central point focused on Nvidia’s supply commitments.

Burry highlighted that Nvidia’s purchase obligations rose sharply, from about $16.1B to $95.2B over the past year. His view is straightforward: if demand slows materially, those commitments can become painful quickly.

It’s also fair context that suppliers like TSMC want more certainty when they are investing in new capacity and advanced packaging. Large, firm commitments are part of what enables that buildout.

Now the fundamentals: Nvidia still crushed the quarter

Putting the debate aside, Nvidia’s results were strong:

• Revenue: $68.1B, up 73% YoY, and about a 3.4% beat versus expectations
• EPS: $1.62 vs $1.50 expected (non-GAAP)
• Gross margin: around 75% (GAAP), a level that reinforces Nvidia’s pricing power in this cycle

This is why the stock reaction feels confusing to many investors. The report itself was a tailwind. The market’s hesitation is coming from the other side of the ledger: commitment risk, growth durability, and uncertainty around the next phase of AI demand.

The takeaway: a range-bound stock in a push–pull market

Right now, Nvidia is stuck in a push–pull.

• Bulls see massive demand, elite margins, and a company that keeps expanding the AI factory stack.
• Bears see rising obligations, higher stakes, and a market that is starting to price “what if the growth rate slows.”

That tension is a big reason the stock can deliver great results and still trade sideways.

Part 3, focused on product news, is coming shortly. Be good!