New York, New York
— January 30, 2026

Market Madness Continues: Tesla and ASML Earnings Breakdown

Market volatility continued as we wrapped up the week. Metals sold off sharply, stocks broadly took a hit, and headlines swirled, most notably the fresh announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair.

But we’re dialed into earnings…

This is part two of our earnings rapid-fire series, covering what you need to know from Tesla and ASML. Two companies tied to the future of automation and compute, but taking very different paths.

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Tesla: No Longer About the Cars

It’s official: Tesla is no longer an auto company.

While headlines still focus on vehicle deliveries, the more interesting story is happening elsewhere. Tesla’s energy storage business grew 25% quarter over quarter, and increasingly looks like a potential cash cow. This comes as Tesla recorded its first-ever annual revenue decline, down 3% in 2025.

Rather than going all in on that business, Elon Musk is leaning fully into a next generation of products he believes will shape the world.

Tesla is pivoting aggressively toward robotics and physical AI. The most eye-catching announcement: Tesla is discontinuing the Model S and Model X, converting its Fremont factories to produce Optimus humanoid robots, with a stated goal of one million general-purpose robots per year.

That transition won’t be cheap.

Musk acknowledged that capital expenditures will surge as Tesla builds out everything required for this shift — from chips and software to robots and robotaxis. It’s a massive bet, and one that moves Tesla squarely into competition for AI compute, manufacturing capacity, and long-term autonomy leadership.

The stock initially dipped after earnings but has since rebounded, fueled by speculation around potential structural combinations involving Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI.

In short: the near-term numbers are messy, but the long-term vision is anything but timid.

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ASML: Follow the Money

With ASML, the story is simpler and arguably a lot more reliable.

Evaluating ASML always comes down to one thing: follow the money. When you look at their customers like TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and Micron, they’re all expanding capacity to meet global chip demand. And none of them can do it without ASML.

Their numbers aren’t as flashy, as the big tech earnings we’re used to but it was solid:

• Revenue and bookings continue to grow
• Margins remain strong
• Long-term demand visibility is improving

Most notably, ASML now projects $71 billion in revenue by 2030, roughly 20% higher than what they forecast just a year ago.

There were no dramatic stock moves immediately following earnings, but the trend tells the real story. ASML shares are up roughly 33% over the past three months, now trading around $1,400.

This is what market confidence looks like: steady execution, clear demand, and an irreplaceable position in the semiconductor supply chain.

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The Bigger Picture

Tesla and ASML highlight two very different paths through today’s volatility.

Tesla is reinventing itself, trading stability for a shot at defining the future of robotics and physical AI. ASML, meanwhile, continues to act as the toll booth on global chip production, benefiting regardless of which AI model or platform wins.

Different strategies. Different risk profiles. Probably way different politics 😉. Same underlying theme: the AI and automation cycle is far from over.

We’ll have SanDisk and Apple up soon, and next week we’re diving into Palantir, AMD, Google, and Amazon.

Be good!