New York, New York
— January 21, 2026

Intel Q4 Earnings Preview: A Turnaround Story at a Crossroads

There’s no shortage of volatility in global markets right now. Headlines out of the World Economic Forum in Davos have stocks under pressure, with geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty weighing on sentiment.

Against that backdrop, Intel has quietly become a standout performer.

The stock is up roughly 3% today and more than 23% so far in 2026, heading into what could be a pivotal Q4 earnings report.

What Wall Street Expects

For the quarter, analysts are looking for:

• $13.37 billion in revenue
• $0.04 in earnings per share
• 37% gross margin

But this earnings call is less about hitting consensus estimates and more about validating the broader turnaround thesis investors are betting on.

Why the Turnaround Narrative Matters

Intel delivered a strong Q3, returning to profitability and stabilizing its financial footing. That momentum was reinforced by a series of high-profile investments, including capital from the U.S. government, NVIDIA, and SoftBank which helped shore up the balance sheet and restore some confidence.

Still, the real work lies ahead.

The Foundry Business Is the Core Question

Intel’s foundry ambitions are central to its long-term relevance, particularly in a world where TSMC dominates advanced manufacturing.

NVIDIA’s $5 billion investment, expected to be recognized in Q4 per Intel’s last earnings call, is a critical signal. The logic for NVIDIA is clear:

• A second advanced manufacturing option
• Geographic diversification
• Increased negotiating leverage versus TSMC
• Greater supply-chain resilience

For Intel, this partnership represents both opportunity and pressure.

Execution Is Everything

CEO Lip-Bu Tan is now roughly nine months into the role. The challenge he faces isn’t vision, it’s execution. Foundries require massive capital expenditures, tight operational discipline, and absolute reliability to win customer trust.

This earnings call should provide more color on:

• The status of the NVIDIA investment
• Progress scaling the foundry business
• How Intel plans to balance CapEx with operational excellence

The Bottom Line

Intel’s stock performance suggests investors are willing to give this turnaround story a chance. Whether that optimism is justified depends on what we hear in Q4 especially around foundry execution and strategic partnerships.

We’ll be listening closely and will have a full earnings debrief posted after the call. Be good!