New York, New York
— November 19, 2025
NVIDIA Day: Google’s Breakout, OpenAI’s IOUs, and the $500B Forecast
On the move in midtown today for some off the cuff thoughts. Markets continue to be choppy, with the vix at elevated levels. Google just hit $300/share for the first time on the back of strong earnings, Buffets buy and of course, Gemini 3. That said, all eyes are on NVIDIA as the company heads into its earnings call after the close.
1️⃣ Google Hits $300 — Buffett Finally Joins the Party
If you thought you missed your chance with Google, think again.
Warren Buffett, at 95 years old, just took a position after watching the stock for over two decades.
It’s a perfect reminder that it’s never too late when it comes to investing in generational companies assuming you have the patience and a long time horizon.
With cloud, ads, and AI all running strong, Google’s breakout could mark the next phase of Big Tech’s post-earnings rally.
2️⃣ NVIDIA’s $500B Forecast: What It Really Means
The spotlight today, though, is squarely on Jensen Huang and his $500 billion revenue forecast over the next five quarters. Wall Street expects roughly $55 billion this quarter, which implies NVIDIA needs to average between $75 billion and $150 billion per quarter going into 2026 to hit that target.
It’s a staggering number and we’ll be looking closely at what guidance they provide to back it up.
3️⃣ The Hyperscaler Equation
As we’ve covered before, NVIDIA’s biggest customers, the hyperscalers, are both its greatest asset and its biggest risk. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle are all flush with cash-flowing businesses that allow them to keep building AI infrastructure, at least for now. But their spending is increasingly being financed with debt, not cash, raising questions about how long the buying spree can last.
Then there’s OpenAI, which sits outside that hyperscaler group. They’ve issued massive IOUs to secure compute capacity and GPUs. Meaning NVIDIA’s fortunes are tied, at least partially, to OpenAI’s ability to pay up and scale profitably without the security of legacy businesses to fall back on.
4️⃣ The Software Story
NVIDIA has made incredible progress in software, evolving beyond just hardware and GPUs.
If Huang can continue building a recurring software business, think cloud services, AI platforms, and data orchestration. We’re looking for hints of NVIDIA potentially moving into a more expansive role in the AI supply chain.
The Takeaway
This is NVIDIA Day, and the stakes are high. Between Google’s breakout, Buffett’s latest move, and NVIDIA’s sky-high forecast, this week could define the tone for the rest of 2025.
As always, we’ll be breaking it down in full right here at Wall Street Game Notes.
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