New York, New York
— November 11, 2025
Earnings Learnings: Meta, Palantir, and the Market’s Message
Earnings season is winding down, with one BIG player left (NVIDIA) but we already have plenty to unpack.
Two of the most influential AI stocks this cycle, Meta and Palantir, both reported strong numbers yet triggered surprising pullbacks. Here’s why that matters, and what it tells us about the current state of the AI trade.
Meta: When CAPEX Outpaces Growth
Meta’s earnings were strong, but investors focused on one thing: spending.
For months, Wall Street has rewarded aggressive CAPEX from AI leaders and that could be shifting.
The issue? Meta’s CAPEX growth rate is officially outpacing revenue growth, raising new concerns about ROI and timing.
Three main factors drove the pullback:
- CAPEX expansion outpacing top-line growth.
- Lack of clarity on investment returns and delivery timelines.
- Guidance calling for even more aggressive spending next year.
Investors hit pause, wanting more transparency before continuing to reward the spending spree.
As we’ve seen before, it’s not that people don’t believe in the Zuck, it’s that the goals, innovation and aspirations outside the core business either need to pay off or hit their limit.
Just remember 2022, when the Metaverse pivot sent Meta stock tumbling to $90/share, taking a year and a half to recover.
Palantir: The Valuation Problem
Then there’s Palantir — a company that’s winning everywhere but still facing skepticism.
Palantir delivered another impressive quarter with strong revenue growth and momentum from its NVIDIA partnership, but its valuation has become a sticking point.
With +$4B in expected 2025 revenue and a $450B market cap, investors decided to take some profits, sending the stock down slightly and the signal rippled across the broader AI ecosystem.
It’s not that Palantir isn’t delivering, it’s that expectations and valuations might have simply run too high.
What This Means for AI Stocks
Both Meta and Palantir are flashing the same signal: we need sustainable growth, not over exuberance and hype-driven rallies.
A short-term cooldown might be the best thing that could happen for the AI sector right now.
It helps shake out excess speculation and reset expectations ahead of NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings, which could set the tone for the rest of Q4.
The Takeaway
The message from this earnings season is clear:
- The AI trade is maturing.
- Investors are demanding clearer ROI and profitability.
- Long-term believers are being rewarded for patience and perspective.
As we always say here at Wall Street Game Notes, volatility isn’t a signal to panic; it’s a reminder to think long-term, zoom out, and keep your head clear when the market gets noisy.
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