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— October 22, 2025

Intel Q3 Earnings Preview: Can the Comeback Story Hold?

The Intel story has taken dramatic turns in recent months, and this week’s Q3 earnings call could mark a pivotal moment for the company’s future. The stock has surged more than 60% on the back of two massive developments — both signaling renewed faith in Intel’s role within the U.S. AI and semiconductor landscape.

Two Game-Changing Deals

The first is a $5 billion investment from NVIDIA, aimed at co-developing custom data center and client CPUs that integrate with NVIDIA’s AI hardware. This partnership not only validates Intel’s technology pipeline but also embeds it deeper into the AI ecosystem — a major credibility win after years of lagging rivals like AMD and TSMC.

The second headline move is the U.S. government’s $8.9 billion investment, on top of existing CHIPS Act grants. This brings the government’s total stake in Intel to roughly 10% ownership. The move underscores how central Intel has become to U.S. national strategy — a cornerstone of the administration’s effort to secure domestic semiconductor manufacturing and AI infrastructure.

What Wall Street Expects

For the quarter, analysts are looking for $13.1 billion in revenue and an EPS of -$0.04, a year-over-year revenue decline of about 7%. That’s the same decline Intel posted in Q3 last year, which means investors will be watching closely for signs of a turnaround under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, now more than six months into his tenure.

Tan’s challenge is clear: leverage Intel’s renewed funding and partnerships to scale production, regain profitability, and carve out a viable role in the AI supply chain.

The Bigger Picture

With direct White House involvement, partnerships across the industry, and a newfound sense of urgency, Intel’s Q3 call isn’t just another quarterly report — it’s a test of whether the company can execute under intense pressure.

We’ll be watching for details on:

• Progress in Intel’s data center and AI chip strategy
• Updates on new product roadmaps and manufacturing capacity
• Signs of margin stabilization and long-term profitability

After bottoming out near $17 per share, Intel now has the backing — and the expectations — to stage one of the biggest comebacks in U.S. tech. The question is whether it can deliver.