New York, New York
— October 15, 2025

If you wanted to point to one company holding up the entire AI supply chain, you could make a strong case that it’s ASML. The Dutch-based chip equipment maker just reported earnings — and while the numbers themselves were solid, the implications for the AI economy are even more important.

Here’s what you need to know.

ASML builds the world’s most advanced machines used to manufacture semiconductor chips. These systems rely on two key technologies: EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) and DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) lithography. Think of EUV as the cutting-edge engine powering the most advanced AI chips — and ASML as the only company in the world that makes it. Each EUV machine costs hundreds of millions of dollars and is sold to chip foundries like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung, which then produce chips for companies like NVIDIA, and ultimately power the cloud infrastructure for hyperscalers like Oracle, Amazon, and Microsoft.

That exclusivity gives ASML an extraordinary chokehold on the semiconductor supply chain. In fact, U.S. export rules restrict ASML from selling these high-end EUV systems to China, underscoring how strategically sensitive their technology has become.

Now to the numbers.
ASML reported €7.5 billion in Q3 revenue, roughly in line with expectations, and guided for a record-breaking €9.5 billion in Q4. That puts the company on track for about €32 billion in full-year revenue — roughly 15% growth year over year. The market liked it, sending the stock up 2.5% on the day and extending its incredible 40% gain over the past year.

For context, ASML shares have rallied about 18% just in September, pushing them back to near $1,000 per share, levels they last reached during record quarters in 2024.

The bigger story, though, is what this means for AI. ASML’s machines are essential to producing the chips that power everything from data centers to GPUs to AI memory modules. As demand surges for AI infrastructure, companies like Micron, Samsung, and TSMC are ramping orders for ASML’s EUV systems.

So while downstream names like NVIDIA and Palantir are grabbing headlines for their triple-digit growth, ASML remains the quiet backbone of the AI revolution — growing steadily, sitting atop irreplaceable technology, and powering the entire ecosystem from the source.

Bottom line: ASML is the pick-and-shovel play on AI. If the world’s biggest tech companies are betting the future on AI, ASML is the company quietly cashing the checks.

Thanks for reading — more deep dives and breakdowns coming soon.
Be good.