New York, New York
— September 16, 2025

This week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve as it prepares to announce its highly anticipated interest rate decision. The conversation couldn’t come at a more pivotal moment for both the economy and investors.

The labor market is showing clear signs of strain. Just last week, revised job numbers from the last fiscal year cut reported gains nearly in half—from 1.8 million down to roughly 900,000 jobs. The first five months of the current fiscal year, April through August, aren’t looking much better, with job growth pacing at the same sluggish level. Meanwhile, jobless claims have climbed to a four-year high.

Inflation, on the other hand, seems relatively steady. The latest print came in at 2.9%, unemployment sits at 4.3%, and GDP growth from Q2 landed at 3.3%. Taken together, these figures reinforce the likelihood that the Fed will move forward with a rate cut, given the growing weakness in the labor market.

For investors, this could be welcome news. Rate cuts typically fuel market rallies by lowering borrowing costs, boosting valuations, improving access to capital, and building confidence. We’re already seeing signs of this, with Google surpassing a $3 trillion valuation and major indices pushing all-time highs.

Looking ahead, the market seems poised to continue its upward trend through the rest of 2025, with the potential for at least one more cut in late October or mid-December. For those watching their portfolios, this could mean more opportunities as we enter the next phase of monetary policy.

At Wall Street Game Notes, we’ll continue tracking how these shifts ripple across markets, tech, and the broader economy. Stay tuned, and as always, let us know what game notes you’re seeing play out.