New York, New York
— September 8, 2025

When I worked at companies like Amazon and Oracle, we moved quickly on the data — not the headlines. The next couple of weeks are going to be packed with economic data that will move markets. And with Trump’s personal involvement in the Bureau of Labor Statistics as well as the Fed, it’s easy to get lost in all of the noise.

Here are a couple of economic game notes for the Wall Street Game Notes community as we pivot into September:

The Fed is expected to drop a highly anticipated interest rate decision on Wednesday, September 17th, and the whole market is watching. The overall consensus is that they’ll cut rates, based on commentary from the Jackson Hole Symposium a few weeks ago.

Before that Fed meeting, we’ll get a critical inflation update on September 11th. If inflation is flat or down, it will likely cement a rate cut in investors’ minds. If it comes in higher, it could throw everything back into question and hit the markets. For context, inflation is about 2.7% right now, just off the Fed’s 2% target. The question is what the August number will show — and whether that’s “good enough.”

We all know inflation has been under the microscope, especially since the Trump tariffs rolled out, which only adds to the pressure here.

Jobs and unemployment are also in focus. I’m noticing waves of layoffs hitting people in my network in tech. For example, Oracle recently executed a reduction in force that impacted some of the teams I used to work with. The jobs report at the end of last week showed just 22,000 new jobs added — only a third of the 75,000 expected. Unemployment ticked up slightly to 4.3%. In short: jobs are down, unemployment is up, and that’s fueling rate-cut hopes — which is why markets rallied at the end of last week.

If you’re paying attention to the numbers, you’re also thinking about the saga between Trump and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Just to recap: Trump fired the previous director in early August, nominated a new director who hasn’t yet been confirmed, and in the meantime, an interim director is running things.

Finally, GDP growth is sitting at 3.3%. That’s slightly above the Fed’s 3% target but not high enough to derail a September rate cut.

Thanks, guys. Make sure to follow, like, and subscribe — we’ll keep you updated as more of this data rolls in.

Be good.