Manhattan, New York
— August 25, 2025

The American tech stack should be the global standard by which every country builds. That’s according to Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang. Big week for Nvidia as they report Q2 earnings. The big question: will they surprise us and hit the $50 billion revenue threshold?

I’ve got a couple of game notes for you heading into that call, and why you should care — even if you’re just a passive investor or 401k holder. Bloomberg is reporting an implied move of 6%. With the stock at $180 today, that’s about 10 points in either direction — down to $170 or up to $190.

Wall Street is looking for about $46 billion in revenue this quarter, which implies a 53% jump year over year. EPS is estimated at $0.98. Now, hitting $50 billion would be huge, but we think they’ll come in a little short. That would imply roughly an 8.7% beat.

Nvidia’s earnings are a big deal. They’re the clear AI leader and now the most valuable company in the world, with a market cap north of $4 trillion. They hold about an 8% weight in the S&P 500, so like it or not, their performance will probably impact you.

Here’s where it gets really interesting: China. The U.S. government placed export controls on Nvidia, blocking them from selling into the Chinese market. Last quarter, Nvidia said that would mean about $8 billion in lost revenue. But after the quarter ended in early August, they struck a deal with the U.S. government: export controls lifted, in exchange for 15% of revenues generated from China.

Wall Street knows this, and it’s priced into the report. But we’ll be looking for guidance on the current quarter — especially since it’s been reported that Chinese buyers are now avoiding Nvidia products due to political fallout.

Lastly, it feels like a pivotal moment. Nvidia is the face of AI, and there’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. If they post a strong quarter with strong guidance, it could put those fears to rest. But if they deliver a weak or middling report, it might trigger more nervousness and possibly an AI sell-off.

Thanks guys. As always, let us know what you’re seeing, feeling, and thinking about Nvidia, their earnings, and the China deal. Be good out there.