Manhattan, New York
— August 20, 2025

AI bubble, dot-com comparisons, market correction. We get a little turbulence this week and suddenly everybody is quick to doubt the run-up we’ve had. We’re entering a new market cycle as we transition into the fall, and it’s completely normal to have some jitters during a week like this — especially with the Fed’s symposium happening in Jackson Hole. Everyone’s on edge about what the central bankers are going to say. Of course, Jerome Powell will be speaking on Friday.

Here at Wall Street Game Notes, we’re focused on the data — and we recommend you do the same. Specifically, we’re watching retail. The bellwethers — Lowe’s, Home Depot, Target, and Walmart — all report this week. July’s retail numbers weren’t bad, but they weren’t great either. That just strengthens our thesis that we’re in a frozen economy. Outside of equity markets, things are pretty locked up.

The question now is: will those locked-up parts of the economy start trickling into earnings, and eventually into equities? That’s what we’re watching closely, along with the Fed meeting, the White House, and the broader geopolitical sphere.

We’ll keep you updated along the way. Be good out there!