Manhattan, New York
— August 18, 2025

The New York Times just published a data point that I cannot stop thinking about: New York City, as a whole, only added 1,000 new jobs in the entire first half of 2025.

What’s up, guys? With everyone focused on the economic symposium out in Jackson Hole this week, I wanted to hit you with a couple of game notes related to what we at Wall Street Game Notes are seeing in the economy.

Our thesis is that we are currently in what we’re calling The Big Freeze. Outside of the equity markets, the economy is stuck — and has been for some time. Let’s walk through a few macroeconomic data points to clarify, and then I’ll share one announcement from us here at Wall Street Game Notes to help if you’re feeling frozen.

First, the data. Across the board, we see numbers that are lukewarm — not terrible, but not great. And that’s part of what’s contributing to this freeze.

• Inflation: July CPI came in at 2.7%, PPI at 3.3%. The bigger problem is inflation expectations are rising, which adds to the freeze.
• Jobs: 73,000 new jobs in July, below expectations but not disastrous. The issue is that many new college grads are struggling to find work.
• Consumer sentiment: It’s off its lows, trending upward, but the preliminary August read doesn’t look strong.
• The Fed Funds Rate: completely frozen. Everyone is watching Jackson Hole for hints of a cut in September.
• The 10-Year Treasury: stuck between 4% and 4.5%.
• Housing market: also frozen. About half as many home sales this year compared to 2021 coming out of COVID.

The good news for investors: the stock market has been up and to the right. But keep in mind, 93% of stocks are owned by just 10% of Americans. So the market isn’t necessarily reflective of how most people are feeling day to day.

Why is all this happening? A big piece is AI — and we’ve got a lot more to say on that, so follow along if you’re interested. Add in political and business uncertainty, sticky inflation, and the growing national debt, and you’ve got The Big Freeze.

Launch announcement! If you’re feeling stuck, we’re excited to share that Wall Street Game Notes will be launching After Hours in-person networking events starting in September in New York City. If you’re in business, tech, or finance, come hang out, meet people, grab a drink, and connect. Go to wallstreetgamenotes.com, scroll to the bottom, click “After Hours,” drop in your info, and we’ll keep you updated on the first meetup.

Be good!