Manhattan, New Yok
— August 12, 2025

Alright guys, I’ve got a quick semiconductor update for you, as there’s a lot moving and shaking right now for the chipmakers, primarily due to geopolitics. I’ve got you — here are a couple of game notes related to four key semiconductor stocks making headlines this week.

Let’s start with two names we love following at Wall Street Game Notes: NVIDIA and AMD. Both of these companies have been unable to sell to the Chinese market due to strict export control laws. It seems like, as of this week, the Trump administration is willing to lift those export controls in exchange for 15% of the revenues generated from the Chinese market.

But what does this mean? Let’s break it down by company.

NVIDIA
On the product side, it’s all about the H20 GPU. This is part of the Hopper series — a slightly less sophisticated model than the current Blackwell series — and it’s what they sell in China. To give you perspective and some ballpark numbers on revenue, they’re looking at about $32 billion in annual sales for these GPUs in China. Assuming the 15% cut for the US government, they’d be looking at about $27.2 billion in take-home. We’ll hear more from NVIDIA in just a couple of weeks at the end of August when they report quarterly earnings. Of course, Wall Street Game Notes will have a full earnings preview and debrief around that time.

AMD
On the product side for AMD, it’s all about the MI-308 chip — that’s what they sell in China. Similar to NVIDIA, it’s a slightly older, less sophisticated model than their MI-350 or MI-400 series currently in the works. For revenue, we’re looking at about $3.2 billion annually for those chips in China, and after the 15% to the US government, that’s about $2.72 billion in revenue.

Micron
Micron raised its guidance for the current quarter by half a billion dollars — from $10.7 billion to $11.2 billion — and the stock has jumped as a result. They’re seeing strong execution and favorable pricing conditions for their DRAM products. That’s good news for AI investors, as DRAM is core to the AI revolution.

Intel
On the Intel side, CEO Lip-Bu Tan met with the Trump administration after being called out for potential conflicts of interest. It seems like most of that drama is now behind us, which is good news for Intel shareholders. Still, they have a long road ahead in the AI and chipmaking space.

Thank you guys for tuning in. I appreciate you all in the Wall Street Game Notes community. I’ll have continued updates for you on these companies and more, as that’s core to what we focus on here.

Be good out there!