Manhattan, New York
— August 7, 2025

Waymos are completing more trips on the Uber network than 99% of Uber drivers out there. I guess that whole “not sleeping” thing has its advantages 😉…

What’s up, guys? Thanks for tuning in! We just heard from Uber on their quarterly earnings report — also Lyft — and I want to talk about both, plus share a couple of Game Notes in general on the autonomous vehicle market, which I’m very bullish on.

Let’s get into it. Uber had a strong quarter, reporting about $12.6 billion in revenue, just above analyst estimates. They also beat on earnings per share, coming in at $0.63. The stock has been running — up 45% in 2025, 35% over the last year, and 105% in the last two years. They’re sitting at about a $193 billion market cap, with the stock trading around $92 a share today.

Now let’s pivot to the fun stuff — autonomous vehicles. This has always been the vision for Uber, and it’s finally coming to fruition. They’ve had a successful launch with Waymo in Austin and then Atlanta, and they’re working to grow and scale that as quickly as possible as they see major efficiencies.

But they’re doing more than that. Uber has signed a multi-hundred-billion-dollar deal with Lucid and Nuro to launch a 20,000-unit fleet over the next six years.

Here’s how this is going to work from a business model perspective, based on what CEO Dara Khosrowshahi shared on the call: three potential models for the next several years.

The first is the merchant model — where Uber pays for the right to have that AV on their network, giving the AV company fixed, predictable revenue while Uber takes on the risk if there are rides or not.

The second is the agency model — basically how it works with drivers today, a revenue-share arrangement.

The third is the owned assets model — where Uber owns all the vehicles, runs the fleet, and pays a licensing fee for the software required to operate the AVs.

While Uber is well-positioned, it’s important to note there are a lot of players entering the space. Tesla is launching its Robotaxi service, which could scale very quickly if successful. Waymo is going direct. And then there’s Lyft.

I was just listening to the Prof G Markets podcast — shoutout to Scott Galloway — where they interviewed Lyft CEO David Risher. He’s very much dug in, and Lyft is not going anywhere.

Overall consensus is that there won’t be a winner-take-all here. I like the idea that a rising tide lifts all boats — it lowers risk as an investor.

Let me know what you guys are thinking when it comes to this market and these companies.

Be good out there!