New York, NY
– July 29, 2025

Microsoft is reporting earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell. The stock has been on an absolute tear over the last three months. Here are three key things you need to know going into that earnings call plus one strategy for potentially buying or selling if you’re thinking about making a move here.

Number one, the numbers. Let’s dive into it.

They are sitting about $515 a share. They have been on an absolute run these last three months, up about 30%. If you zoom out, they’re about 21% up in the last year. And if you zoom out further, the two year chart, looking at about 53%. A lot of the growth has come in the last three months.

Why? Primarily because of the opportunity with AI. I wanna dive into that in a second, but first, I wanna talk about what Wall Street’s expecting. 20 out of 20 analysts who cover the stock from Visible Alpha are rating it a buy or buy equivalent. Price targets are in the range of $580 a share to $600 a share.

That is a 13%-15% bump from where we currently sit at $515. Number two is products and services. Let’s take a look at Microsoft and see what’s gonna get them that growth. The main thing to focus on for this call is the cloud business. Azure within that business has been a major driver of growth.

I wanna understand the numbers related to that and specifically the AI services within Azure. The cloud business looking at a $29 billion revenue estimate, signaling 22% growth. That is going to be key for Microsoft’s performance into the future. The third is risk factors to their business, the first of which is the relationship with OpenAI. Microsoft Azure was the exclusive cloud provider for the back end of OpenAI and ChatGPT.

That is no longer the case, and they have gone out and signed a deal with Google Cloud, raising competition flags for Microsoft Azure and the potential growth for Microsoft as all of these hyperscalers compete against each other for cloud market share. The second is capital expenditures. Microsoft is anticipating spending $80 billion in capital expenses over the last year. This is their fiscal Q4. I want to understand if that number is accurate, if that was the case over the last quarter, to sum up the year, and more importantly, what the guidance is for the next year.

In sum, Wall Street is expecting the stock to move about 4%-5% in either direction based on this earnings. If you are new to investing and looking to make a move here, I always recommend dollar cost averaging (DCA), a little before, a little after. That evens out your cost basis and really reduces a lot of the risk, hopefully, letting you sleep a lot better at night.

I will have pre and post earnings videos for you on all the big tech names reporting this weekend next as we grind through earning season. Tune in for that.

Be good out there.